Roslyn reaches major hurricane status in East Pacific, on track to strike Mexico
The brief break in tropical activity across the eastern Pacific Ocean came to an end with the formation of Roslyn south of Mexico on Thursday. Since then, Roslyn has blossomed Friday night and Saturday morning, going from a Category 2 to a Category 4 hurricane in just 12 hours.
AccuWeather forecasters say Roslyn, the season's 17th named system, can take a similar path to Orlene from earlier in the month, striking the western coast of Mexico with heavy rain and damaging winds as a hurricane.
Roslyn, which originated as Tropical Depression 19-E on Wednesday evening, is the first named storm to roam the East Pacific since Julia, which crossed over from the Atlantic basin. The last storm to actually form in the basin was Tropical Storm Paine. Paine developed in the open waters of the Pacific during the first week of October and was never a threat to land.
Unlike Paine, forecasters say Roslyn poses a significant risk to portions of western Mexico. AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Roslyn a 2 for Mexico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes based on the expected impacts from wind, rain and storm surge flooding.
Around the Web
Roslyn reached Category 4 hurricane status (maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph (209-251 km/h)) just to the southwest of Mexico over the eastern Pacific Ocean Saturday morning, Oct. 21, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
As of 12 p.m. MDT Saturday, Roslyn was about 140 miles (225 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Roslyn has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, meaning it has reached Category 4 hurricane strength. The storm was trudging slowly to the north-northwest at a speed of 8 mph.
Forecasters said the hurricane's location in an environment where atmospheric factors are conducive for strengthening lead to the rapid intensification through early Saturday.
"It is located in a zone of low, vertical wind shear and warm waters, which could aid in further strengthening this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty explained.
GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
-
Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
Forecasters say Roslyn will likely take a path that parallels Mexico's southern coastline into the weekend before it turns toward the northeast. This path is forecast to place the system on a crash course with the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit and Jalisco on Sunday.
Ahead of Roslyn's arrival, a hurricane warning is in effect from the Mexican coastline from Playa Perula to El Roblito as well as Las Islas Marias. A hurricane watch has been issued north of there, from north of El Roblito to Mazatlan. South of the hurricane warning, a tropical storm warning is in effect from south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo.
AccuWeather forecasters are concerned it could hold on to wind intensity and remain a major Category 3 hurricane strength (maximum-sustained winds of 111-129 mph or 178-208 km/h) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at landfall.
"Regardless of the intensity of the system at landfall, flooding rain and mudslides are going to be a threat," Douty cautioned.
The heaviest rain from the storm is forecast to arrive for portions of the Mexican coastline during the weekend as it begins its turn toward land. Drenching rainfall from this system will quickly raise flooding concerns, especially for areas that endured a direct hit from Hurricane Orlene in the first days of October.
Torrential rainfall can rapidly produce areas of flash flooding as well as force area streams and rivers to swell.
"The heavy rainfall can lead to life-threatening flooding, along with dangerous mudslides in the mountainous terrain," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.
In addition, damaging winds of over 100 mph (160 km/hr) are forecast near where the system ultimately makes landfall.
"Winds of this magnitude can lead to widespread power outages, as well as damage to structures," Sojda added.
Even ahead of direct impacts to land, rough seas and dangerous rip currents will be a significant concern through the weekend.
By early next week, Roslyn's circulation is expected to be ripped apart by Mexico's mountainous terrain. Forecasters say it's possible some of the storm's lingering moisture will be pulled into the south-central United States.
"A storm moving out of the Rockies will pick up some of the tropical moisture later this weekend into the following week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger explained. This could result in some much-needed rain, which will include the risk of gusty thunderstorms, from Texas into the central Plains, he added.
0 Comments